When It Comes to Turnout, 2024 and 2020 Are Nothing Alike

Forget 2020. Here's why the next presidential election will see a massive drop in voter turnout.

In 2020, voter turnout reached its highest point in more than a century, with 66.8% of eligible voters casting ballots.

But don't expect a repeat of that in 2024.

According to a new study from the Pew Research Center, turnout in 2024 is likely to be significantly lower, with only 55% to 60% of eligible voters expected to vote.

So what's changed?

There are a number of factors that could contribute to a decline in turnout in 2024.

First, the 2020 election was particularly high-stakes, with the outcome seen as a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump.

That level of excitement is unlikely to be replicated in 2024, which is likely to be a more traditional election between two major-party candidates.

Second, the 2020 election was held during a global pandemic, which led to a number of changes to the voting process, such as increased use of mail-in voting.

These changes made it easier for people to vote, and they could have contributed to the high turnout.

However, many of these changes are likely to be reversed in 2024, which could make it more difficult for people to vote.

Finally, the 2024 election is likely to be less competitive than the 2020 election.

In 2020, there was a real possibility that Trump could lose, which motivated many people to vote.

In 2024, the incumbent president is likely to be a Democrat, and the Republican challenger is likely to be a less polarizing figure than Trump.

This could lead to a decrease in voter enthusiasm and turnout.

The bottom line

While it is still too early to say for sure what voter turnout will be in 2024, the signs point to a significant decline from 2020.

This is due to a number of factors, including the lower stakes of the election, the reversal of pandemic-related changes to the voting process, and the less competitive nature of the race.